MARKET INSANITY.

Market Action over the past few days has been nothing short of insanity. ZOOM zoomed a lot, and then with the momentum drivers coming to a close for the short term, the market did not have much more room to stretch. And by Stretched, I mean freaking Stretched. The fundamentals of the market have been entirely replaced by technical and momentum indicators. So when you see a SELL-OFF of this magnitude in two days, expect some follow through. But always hedge yourselves, Short Sellers need to cover at the end of the day so it can promote some upward price momentum in an overarching downtrend, like we saw with the SPY, QQQ, and DJIA. All Indexes broadly sold off from the open, rebounded a little (shorts buying back shares to cover), and sold off into the later evening with futures currently trading lower. Anyways, catch our perspective of where the Market is at with our last Podcast we recorded in response to the Market Sell-Off last night. We’re staying net-short in the near term but will be seeking different value opportunities as they present themselves in the upcoming week. As always, stay safe trading, and if you don’t know, you definitely don’t know. You might hit a couple of speculative home-runs, but every streak breaks, especially with Traders who have been self-proclaiming them self as the next Warren Buffet for buying derivatives on APPL, MSFT, TSLA, FB, or AMZN. Looks like “SOFTBank” lured a lot of people into that trap as they were promoting the momentum of these stocks through massive purchase orders of derivatives, to maybe make up for the WeWork debacle. Anyways there is definitely so much going on in the market, its hard to keep track. But I’m excited to announce that we will be launching our daily portfolio and market analysis, Starting this Tuesday, September 8th, 2020, to help you through on this journey!

Take a break from being a bull or a bear, be a horse.

*Written by Christoper Harden & Connor Nolen

This year’s unusual circumstances with a global pandemic have caused the Kentucky Derby to take place in September for the first time in its storied 145-year history. Fitting with this historical context, Tiz the Law is hoping to make history in more ways than one at the Kentucky Derby this year, and our projections says he’s going to do it. In the entire history of the Kentucky Derby, no horse has ever won from post 17, and none has ever won it as the second leg of a Triple Crown pursuit.

              There is loads of information out there on which horse to pick, what long shot to back and who to include in your trifecta and superfecta picks to get the biggest payout. At first glance and even after loads of practice, all the opinions, numbers and historical precedent can be hard to sort out. In order to help the average or experienced bettor, our team has a model that helps project which horses are most likely to finish in the winner’s circle and who will take home the 1st place finish.

              This year’s field is surprisingly spread out, from a heavy favorite in Tiz the Law, especially after King Guillermo’s scratch, all the way down to Winning Impression, which our model says has less than a 1% chance of winning. So, who should be the favorite? Should the historical precedence surrounding slot 17 be a concern? According to our model, it’s a pretty clear answer: NO. In the 5-year history of our model, Tiz the Law is the heaviest favorite it has ever predicted, coming in just ahead of Nyquist in 2016. Based on that result, we’d say that going with anyone other than Tiz the Law to win would probably be a mistake. That said, our model always spits out a “Yes” or a “No” on whether or not the horse is a good bet to win, and this year Authentic is the only other horse that earned a “Yes”. At the current odds of 8-1, vs. 6-5 for the Tiz the Law, Authentic is a good value pick. These two could be an great combo for an exacta box bet or you could use Authentic to fill a place or show bet.

              If you’re looking to build your trifectas or superfectas, our model also gives a projection on whether or not a horse will finish in the Top 5. Currently we have Tiz the Law, Honor AP, Thousand Words and Authentic as the best bets to finish in the Top 5 (King Guillermo was on there until yesterday).

Historically, our model has predicted 2.8 of the Top 5 horses.

QUICK TIP:

To save yourself some money, you can pick the 2/3 horses you think have a good chance to finish in the Top 3/4 other than Tiz the Law, and then build a boxed trifecta/superfecta with Tiz the Law as the first-place horse every time. This cuts your investment by 3/4 than if you did a full boxed trifecta/superfecta with Tiz the Law finishing in each place. Interestingly enough, our model has never predicted the 2nd place finisher, so if you wanted to mix things up, you could do an exacta box with Tiz the Law and our best “No”, Max Player.

              Our best Long shot on the board is Sole Volante who finished with about the same odds to win as Max Player and NY Traffic, but has more favorable odds at 28-1 currently. If you want to have fun with a long shot bet, Sole Volante would be our horse. Best of luck betting and we hope our model helps you save some money and take home a little extra this year!

Click to see our Derby Models. *use at own risk*

*Modeled by Christopher Harden & Connor Nolen

*DISCLAIMER

All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment/sports betting decisions and to do your own work and hold LJMB CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, and their related parties harmless.Opinions given are at this moment and can change rapidly after this is published. LJMB Capital Advisors, LLC, and its employees do not take individual stock positions to avoid front running and other related issues.